On the Monitoring of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic Outbreak in Nigeria

Publication Date: 21/04/2020

Author(s): Braimah Joseph Odunayo.

Volume/Issue: Volume 3 , Issue 2 (2020)


This study is a monitoring analysis of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The data used for the study is sourced from the Nigeria Centre for disease Control (NCDC) as at 10:00PM on the 11th of April, 2020 which comprises number of laboratory confirmed cases, number of active cases and number of discharged cases. The models used in this study are the linear trend model, fish-bone diagram, Pareto analysis and pie chart. The fish bone diagram depicts the likely symptoms to check out for in a patent infected by COVID-19; the Pareto analysis shows that Lagos, FCT (Abuja) and Osun constitute 80% of all the infected states; the trend analysis shows that the spread of the pandemic is still on an increase rate; from the 3 months forecast carried out using linear trend analysis, in the next three months (90 days) active COVID-19 cases in Nigeria may hit 1000 positive confirmed cases if more measures is not put in place to curb the spread of the pandemic; and lastly, from the performance assessment, it is seen that the pandemic is still under control.

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