| 1 |
Author(s):
Viateur Habarugira, Kelly Joëlle Gatore Sinigirira, Jean de Dieu Nkurunziza.
Page No : 1-9
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Effects of Rainfall Patterns and Gasenyi River’s Damage, Bujumbura Burundi
Abstract
During the rainy period some of rivers can cause some damages in the neighborhoods near them and we know that rivers are receiving storm water runoff from different areas and it can be the source of the disaster which causes damage following unsuitable human activities. Many Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are already knowing the water stress as a result of insufficient and unreliable rainfall, changing rainfall patterns or flooding. The effects of Gasenyi River which disturb people a lot are the destruction of houses and the flooding. The results of this work show that the disadvantages of the Gasenyi River during the rainy season are often the destruction of houses, flooding and some impassable roads. Among these damages, the one that weakens people is the destruction of houses and the main cause is the extraction of materials. Even if extracting materials causes a problem, few people claim that it is beneficial to them.
| 2 |
Author(s):
Onuoha Desmond O., Obimgba Blessing.
Page No : 10-31
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Linear Discriminant Analysis and Multinomial Logistic Regression in Classification and Predictive Modeling: A Comparative Approach
Abstract
The goal of this study was to compare two different methods of classification; Linear Discriminant Analysis and Multinomial Logistic Regression to make the choice between the two, depending on the characteristics of the data. Since both are appropriate for the development of linear classification models, Linear Discriminant Analysis makes more assumptions like normality and equal covariance among the explanatory variables on the underlying data, but when violated it is assumed that the Multinomial Logistic Regression is a more flexible and more robust method of analysis. In this work, some guidelines for proper choice were set up which was based on some predictive accuracy. The performance of the methods was studied by a real dataset and a simulated dataset. We started with the real dataset where all the assumptions failed, also, we performed an appropriate transformation on the real dataset and Linear Discriminant Analysis was performed on it. Next we compare with simulated data where all the assumptions of Linear Discriminant Analysis are satisfied. From the result where the assumptions were violated, Multinomial Logistic Regression performs better than Linear Discriminant Analysis, also the result from the analysis performed on the transformed data shows that the Multinomial Logistic Regression also performed better, and whenever the assumptions hold as in the case of the simulated data, Linear Discriminant Analysis slightly performs better. Hence Multinomial Logistic Regression serves as an alternative whenever the assumptions of discriminant analysis fail instead of transforming the data.
| 3 |
Author(s):
O.A.P. Otaru, D. Enegesele.
Page No : 32-46
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Statistical Analysis on the Impact of COVID-19 on E-Commerce in Nigeria
Abstract
Most human activities around the world are technological using the internet due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic had a devastating effect on the economy and human activities of many counties of the world, Nigeria inclusive. The adoption of the internet around the world is encouraging but with its challenges such as fraud, lack of privacy, and other negative verses. This problem has a strong influence on customer’s behavior, which has a significant effect on e-commerce. Thus, it is pertinent to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on e-commerce in Nigeria. This research used a cross-sectional survey design with a population, which comprised of internet users in Nigeria. A sample size of 411 was drawn using the Taro-Yamane formula for sample size determination; stratified random sampling was applied. Primary data was collected using a self-administered questionnaire, and these data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and factor analysis. Results revealed that COVID-19 significantly (p<0.05) increased the adoption, satisfaction, and sustainability of e-commerce in Nigeria. In conclusion, the factors that influenced customer’s behaviour in the adoption of e-commerce during COVID-19 lockdown are convenience, service satisfaction, and trusts such as privacy and transaction security.
| 4 |
Author(s):
O. K. Ogunbamike, I. T. Awolere, O. A. Owolanke.
Page No : 47-62
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Dynamic Response of Uniform Cantilever Beams on Elastic Foundation
Abstract
The problem of the flexural vibrations of a uniform cantilever Bernoulli-Euler beams resting on an elastic foundation is studied in this paper. The analytical solution is based on the expression of the Heaviside function as a Fourier series and the fourth order partial differential equation of beam vibration under fixed and free end boundary conditions is transformed to second order ordinary differential equation by the generalized finite integral transform. The method of Struble’s asymptotic technique is then used to simplify the resulting equation and make it amenable to the methods of Laplace and convolution theory. The effects of velocity of the load, axial force and flexural stiffness on the natural frequencies of the beam model are studied. The solutions obtained are verify first and then used to investigate the significance of different parameters on the beam behaviour.
| 5 |
Author(s):
Akomolafe A.A., Adeoti O.A., Awogbemi C.A., Aliu A.H., Bagbe A..
Page No : 63-74
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Live Birth Registrations in Nigeria: Analytical Approach Using Arima Model
Abstract
Data on Birth registration often comes from complex sampling designs with hierarchical structure. The study aimed at using a novel approach and expanded variables on the determinants of birth registration. Issues of live birth registration among young children in developing countries are gaining more attention of policy-makers because of the adverse effects on the wellbeing of people and economic of these nations. Civil registration provides a continuous record of vital events. This research examines the stationarity in live birth registration among the two age-groups and a model was fitted to the age-groups. The data used were analyzed using R programming language. Time series analysis was used to analyze and forecast from the data presented. Research results showed that group under 1 year and 5 years are stationary, only under 5 years forecast indicated that there is a constant in the data and Box- Ljung showed that the residual plots are dependent. It was concluded that there is substantial growth in the registration of live birth in Nigeria despite the instability in the system during the specified period. Also, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Philip Perron (PP) test imply that the more negative the test, the stronger is the model. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach model stands as the best model for prediction based on this series.
| 6 |
Author(s):
Tarhadi.
Page No : 75-80
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The Constant of Beltrami Flow in the Helicity of Pekeris, Accad and Shkolar Flow
Abstract
In this paper will be showed that the constant C of Beltrami is equal to Λ, the positive root of the second order of Spherical Bessel j_2 (r) in Pekeris, Accad and Shkoler (PAS) flow. [1]
| 7 |
Author(s):
Bashiru Omeiza Sule, Ibrahim Sule.
Page No : 81-93
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On Some Properties and Applications of the Topp Leone Exponentiated Inverted Kumaraswamy Distribution
Abstract
In recent years, researchers in the area of distribution theory are proposing and developing new models by generalizing the existing ones so as to make them more flexible and fit in the recent trend in data. In this research, we propose a new distribution called the Topp Leone exponentiated inverse distribution with four positive parameters, which extends the inverse Kumaraswamy distribution with two shape parameters. We derive some mathematical properties of the proposed model including explicit expressions for the quantile function, moments, generating function, probability generating function, survival, hazard rate, reversed hazard rate, cumulative hazard rate and odd functions. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of the distribution. We illustrate its potentiality with applications to two real data sets which show that the extended generalized inverse exponential model provides a better fit than other models considered.
| 8 |
Author(s):
S. Ibrahim-Tiamiyu, Olanrewaju V. Oni, E. O Adeleke.
Page No : 94-106
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Markovian Analysis of Covid-19 Dynamics
Abstract
Covid-19 is an emergency and viral infection with its outbreak being termed as one of the great epidemics in the 21st century causing so many deaths, which made WHO declare it as a pandemic emergency. This virus is new and comes with its characteristics of which randomness and uncertainty are among its common features. In this paper, we developed a model for carrying out an analysis of COVID-19 dynamics using Markov-chain theory methodology. Here, we employed the use of conditional probability distribution as embedded in the Markov property of our chain to construct the transition probabilities that were used in determining the probability distributions of COVID-19 patients as well as predicting its future spread dynamics. We provide a step-by-step approach to obtaining probability distributions of infected and recovered individuals, of infected and recovering and of a recovered patient being getting infected again. This study reveals that irrespective of the initial state of health of an individual, we will always have probabilities P_RI/〖(P〗_IR+P_RI) of an individual being infected and P_RI/〖(P〗_IR+P_RI) of an individual recovering from this disease. Also, with increasing ‘n’, we have an equilibrium that does not depend on the initial conditions, the implication of which is that at some point in time, the situation stabilizes and the distribution X_(n+1) is the same as that of X_n. We envision that the output of this model will assist those in the health system and related fields to plan for the potential impact of the pandemic and its peak.
