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Author(s): Dr. Lassana Toure, Atoumane Diagne, Dr. Amadou Traore.

Volume/Issue: Volume 4 , Issue 2 (2021)

Abstract:

This paper reports an analysis of the statistical data and a socio-economic impact analysis of COVID-19. The pandemic started in Asia, particularly China, in December 2019 and continued until it peaked there at the end of February 2020. Europe has seen a dramatic increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths since March 2020. At the same time, and to a lesser extent, North America, including the USA, has gradually taken over and now contains more new positive cases than anywhere else in the world. In contrast, South America, like Brazil, was the epicentre of the pandemic at the end of August 2020. Africa and Oceania are modestly affected by the pandemic. Econometric estimates were made assuming that the COVID-19 pandemic continues until December 2021. The results show that the duration of the peak of the pandemic would not exceed 400 days worldwide, if during the first 24 months the number of new cases never exceeds 800,000, and in the absence of an effective vaccine and treatment. The measures currently being implemented in many countries to prevent the spread of the disease (social distancing, closing of markets, confinement, banning of gatherings, etc.) are having a profound impact on the various markets and, through them, on the living conditions of households. The number of unemployed may increase. World trade and world prices of financial assets are in free fall. The State and the Central Banks will be obliged to intervene to revive economic activity and regulate certain prices of necessity. This pandemic, through barrier measures, is causing new social developments across the planet. It emphasises the idea that science, techniques and technologies are largely limited. Health and social systems are gradually destabilised. The pandemic suddenly affects religions, socio-professional activities, cultures, the functioning of transport and consumption systems. A new social and economic order is gradually taking shape in place of individualism, notably with a return to communitarian values and the emergence of new behaviours.

Keywords:

COVID-19 Impact Analysis, Econometric Forecasting, Global Economy, Societies, New World Order

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