A Study on the Relationship between Rural and Urban Population Growth and Food Availability in Nigeria.

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between rural and urban population growth and domestic food availability in Nigeria using annual data from 1961 to 2022. Food availability is proxied by the food production index (FPI), while demographic variables are described by rural population growth (RPG) and urban population growth (UPG). Both short- and long-run dynamics are examined by employing unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration, and the vector error correction model (VECM). Results show that FPI, RPG, and UPG are integrated of order one and cointegrated, confirming a long-run equilibrium. Cointegration estimates reveal that both RPG and UPG undermine food production, indicating that demographic expansion places an irrepressible pressure on domestic food availability. The VECM demonstrates a rapid speed of adjustment, while impulse-response analysis shows RPG and UPG shocks have negative but transitory effects on food availability, with the impact fading with time. These findings underscore the significance of productivity-enhancing agricultural investments, improved distribution systems, and income growth in mitigating population-induced pressure on food availability.