Evaluating Budget Trustworthiness in a Developing Country after Program-Based Budgeting Reforms.

Abstract:

There are several factors that influence the budget worthiness of countries. Accurate revenue forecasts, political commitment and fiscal restraint, public financial management (PFM) systems, donor reliance and external funding, and the ability of implementing Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) budgets are key factors that impact budget execution and credibility. The study employed a PRISMA guided systematic literature review. The results show that the credibility of the budget is seriously damaged by inflated revenue predictions, political meddling, inadequate institutional capability, and uneven donor support. Although transparency has increased due to systems like GIFMIS, the total impact is limited by their uneven application. To improve Ghana's fiscal results, the report emphasizes the necessity of more integrated budgeting procedures, improved institutional discipline, and reinforced forecasting models. Despite improvements in Ghana's budget credibility, budgets are under-executed in part because of inaccurate revenue forecasts, particularly overestimation. Fiscal indiscipline and off-budget spending are also caused by political meddling, especially during election seasons. Although PFM systems like GIFMIS have increased transparency, not all MDAs use them uniformly. The execution of capital projects is impacted by donor dependency, which creates uncertainty in the availability of funds. Effective budget implementation is hampered by MDAs’ institutional and human capacity limitations, particularly at the subnational level. All things considered, these interrelated variables have reduced PBB's efficacy in Ghana, indicating the need for more solid accountability structures, improved forecasting techniques, and stronger institutionalization.