Mathematical Modeling of Road Traffic Fatalities

Matthew Femi Olayiwola

Mathematical Modeling of Road Traffic Fatalities | AB Journals

Mathematical Modeling of Road Traffic Fatalities

African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies

Vol. 3Issue 52020pp. 63–74Published 22 December 2020

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Abstract:

The development of a mathematical model for predicting the future values of road fatality in South Africa is of great concern as road accidents become a public health concern and a threat to the economy. This study aims to develop an ARIMA model for the prediction of quarterly road fatality in all the provinces of South Africa. Nineteen years of quarterly data from 2001 to 2019 were used to build the model. The best two models were selected using the Akaike information criterion (AIC); volatility and adjusted R^2 values. Thus, ARIMA (4,1,1) and ARIMA (4,1,4) were found to be the best models. The ARIMA (4, 1, 4) model forecast produced an excellent match with the actual series. Hence, predicting the future values of road fatality in South Africa using these models will help the policymakers and all stakeholders make well-informed decisions. In the next study, the economic impact of road crashes and fatalities on the South African economy will be considered.

Keywords:Mathematical Modeling Road Traffic Fatality Box-Jerkins ARIMA Time Series

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