Using Improved Two-Source Capture-Recapture Methods  In Settling Disputed Election Results.

E. E. Chinwuba; Okafor Patrick Nnaemeka; Kama Henry Nnanna

doi:10.52589/AJMSS-JVSIAWKH

Using Improved Two-Source Capture-Recapture Methods In Settling Disputed Election Results. | AB Journals

Using Improved Two-Source Capture-Recapture Methods In Settling Disputed Election Results.

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African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies

Vol. 7Issue 42024pp. 57–71Published 21 October 2024

DOI 10.52589/AJMSS-JVSIAWKH

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Abstract:

Introduction of new technology to check rigging and manipulation of election results by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) raised hopes and dreams of many Nigerians, especially the new electorates, that the 2023 general election in Nigeria would be free and fair. Cross-checking INEC declared election results using this recapture model is supposed go beyond questionnaires. Sampling technique to select polling units where re-run election is to take place is necessary. They have been issues of vote suppression, rigging, manipulation or intimation in those areas would have largely been reduced. The new estimator has shown that there were no serious cases of vote suppression, manipulation or intimation by any political party, as far as this Local Government Area is concerned. If there were vote suppression, it is only about 1.78% which is negligible. Using simulated data, we found that efficient recapture model (Me) provides better and more reliable estimate than the conventional models.

Keywords:Disputed election results Nigeria settlement high recapture efficient estimate.

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