Assessment of Risk and Uncertainty Factors Inherent in Nigerian Highway Project Using Analytical Hierarchical Process

Abstract:

The study presents a framework through which risk and uncertainties in Nigeria highway projects can be appraised using the analytical hierarchical process model. Pairwise comparison matrix was performed on eleven (11) risk and uncertainty factors that affect highway project performance through a questionnaire survey conducted among two hundred and four (204) respondents, which involved various stakeholders in the highway construction industry using Saaty’s AHP rating scale. The relative weights (significance/impact level) of each of the highway risk factors were estimated during the AHP model development. The results in descending order of risk factors priorities are Standard & Regulations (S&R), Construction (C), Project Staff (PS), Project Sponsor (PSp), Design (D), Project Finance (PF), Economic (E), Equipment (EQ), Environmental & Geotechnical (En&G), Site Location (SL) and Subcontractor (S) with impact levels of 16.6%, 14.2%, 13.9%, 13%, 12.7%, 12.2%, 10.8%, 9.8%, 6.2%, 4.2%, and 3.8% respectively. The model was validated using the statistical consistency test, with the model showing a consistency ratio equal to 0.1. The model was then applied to five (5) highway construction projects which had been constructed to predict the ones with the most and least risks. The result was in tandem with that which was given by the project managers from experiences on the project. This study showed that the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) decision support model can effectively be used for risk assessment and prioritization of highway construction projects for efficient resource utilization in Nigeria.