Time Series Analysis of Crime Rate in Osun State Nigeria Using Skellam Garch(1,1) Models

Semiu Ayinla Alayande (Ph.D); Ankeli Uchechi C.

doi:10.52589/AJLPRA-JBS2KW8K

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Time Series Analysis of Crime Rate in Osun State Nigeria Using Skellam Garch(1,1) Models

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African Journal of Law, Political Research and Administration

Vol. 6Issue 12023pp. 51–61Published 18 March 2023

DOI 10.52589/AJLPRA-JBS2KW8K

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Abstract:

The manifestation of urban crime and other social vices causing anti-moral, anti-social behaviours as well as criminal damage to both public and private properties in Nigeria with the consequential effect of spontaneous and uncontrollable urban growth, high-level poverty rate, distortion of city peace and tranquillity has become an issue of national discourse. The paper employed ARCH and Skellam GARCH models to forecast the likely crime rate trend within the next five years. The Skellam-GARCH model performs better as a crime forecasting model than the ARCH model.

Keywords:Arch model Skellam-Garch model Forecast

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Copyrights

Authors retain copyright in their articles and have unrestricted rights to reuse, republish, archive, share, and distribute their work after publication.
All articles are published open access under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format, including for commercial purposes, provided appropriate credit is given to the original author(s) and source.