Buy One Get One Free: Recognition, State-Building, and the Dual Peace Dividend in the Horn of Africa

Abstract:

Somalia and Somaliland are usually presented as competitors in a zero-sum sovereignty dispute. This article develops a different proposition: internationally recognized Somaliland statehood could also advance Somalia's stabilization and state-building. The "buy one get one free" formulation describes a potential dual peace dividend rather than an automatic result. The study combines qualitative, theory-guided historical and policy analysis with in-depth expert interviews and focus group discussions. Five theoretical mechanisms are proposed. Recognition could clarify the territorial scope of Somalia's federal project, reduce political investment in forceful reunification and redirect resources toward reconciliation and public authority. It could also support security and economic cooperation with Hargeisa and reduce regional threat perceptions that complicate external support for Mogadishu. Interview participants linked the unresolved status dispute to constitutional ambiguity, nationalist mobilization, diplomatic tensions, and diverted state-building attention. The article therefore recommends a negotiated settlement covering borders, citizenship, public assets and debts, security cooperation, freedom of movement, and minority protections. If Somalia is unwilling or unable to accept separation, the international community should step in to mediate the deadlock . With these arrangements, recognition could strengthen Somaliland’s statehood and help Somalia develop a more coherent, legitimate, and governable federal state.