Analysis of Monetary Policy Towards Correction of Balance of Payment Disequilibrium in Tanzania.
Publication Date: 08/08/2024
Author(s): Seth Kenedi Mbwambo, Ephraim Welnery Mchukwa, Odrano Lucas Mwanana.
Volume/Issue: Volume 7 , Issue 3 (2024)
Abstract:
This study investigates the role of monetary policy in correcting balance of payment disequilibrium in Tanzania using time series data from 1989 to 2022. The data were transformed to natural logarithms for linearity. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Unit root test, ARDL Bound cointegration test, and residual diagnostic tests were employed to analyze this data. The study showed that only the inflation rate (CPI) was stationary at level, while the balance of payment (NFA), real effective exchange rate (REXR), money supply (MS), discount rate (DS), and domestic credit to private sector (DCPS) were stationary at their first difference. Further, ARDL showed that only REXR and MS have a long-run positive effect on the balance of payment (BoP), while other variables have short-run effects. The Error Correction Model (ECM) showed a speed of 40% adjustment of BoP each year. The study recommends that BoP disequilibrium be corrected by appropriate monetary policy tools.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy, Balance of Payment, Tanzania, ARDL.
