Time Series Models of Crude Oil Production and Export in Nigeria (1999-2015)

Publication Date: 07/02/2020


Author(s): Etaga Harrison O., Igwebuike Emeka K., Etaga Cecilia N.

Volume/Issue: Volume 3 , Issue 1 (2020)



Abstract:

This study discussed the time series models of crude oil production and export in Nigeria from January 1999- December 2015. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test employed in the analysis to test for stationarity of the two series indicated that the crude oil production series was stationary at no differencing while crude oil exportation was stationary after first order differencing. The ACF and PACF of both crude production and export identified possible model for both series. Based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) the best model for Crude Production and Export were SARIMA (1,0,1) (2,0,0)12 and SARIMA (2,1,0) (1,0,1)12. Residual analysis and Box-Ljung test proved the adequacy of the models for both series.



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