Modeling the use of Trace-Test-Isolate-Treat Strategy for Controlling the Spread of Covid-19

Publication Date: 01/03/2024

DOI: 10.52589/AJMSS-ASOHFR9Q


Author(s): Michael C. Anyanwu, Emmanuel C. Duru.

Volume/Issue: Volume 7 , Issue 1 (2024)



Abstract:

During the COVID-19 pandemic that ravaged the entire world between 2019 and 2021, the Trace-Test-Isolate-Treat Strategy was devised as an emergency way of managing the spread of the disease. As the name implies, the Trace-Test-Isolate-Treat Strategy involves identifying those who had contact with an infected person through contact tracing, and subsequent isolation and treatment if confirmed to be infected with the disease. This paper aims to model the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, with the Trace-Test-Isolate-Treat Strategy as a control strategy. To do this, we propose a simple nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations that models COVID-19 dynamics and incorporates the Trace-Test-Isolate-Treat strategy as a way of controlling the spread of the disease. The analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the reproduction number, R_eff is less than one. Furthermore, the model is shown to possess a unique and stable endemic equilibrium if, R_eff>1. This confirms the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the absence of backward bifurcation in the model. Numerical plots show the effectiveness of isolation and treatment of infected persons in reducing the spread of the disease.


Keywords:

Coronavirus; Trace-Test-Isolate-Treat Strategy; disease-free equilibrium; endemic equilibrium; local stability


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